Today, as expected, the ratio of cumulative deaths outside of New York to that number three days ago dropped, to 1.47
If it continues to edge down, that would mean that New York will remain a uniquely affected state.
7 thoughts on “3DDRR update”
I wonder if there is a threshold, or critical-mass, effect at work in NYC. Once the epidemic reached a certain point it was impossible to contain; the same might have happened in Italy. It suggests to Trump/Fauci critics on the right that the social distancing was warranted.
It depends what you mean by “social distancing”: Sweden is doing social distancing but they are not locking up everyone indefinitely, not closing down schools, bars and restaurants. But they’ve cancelled all sport and political events and all public gatherings larger than 50 people. Does that count as “social distancing” in your book?
Japan does even less than that and has so low a number of infected and dead that it’s the rounding error in other parts of the world. Yet, I am certain that even they are doing some social distancing. Similar applies to Taiwan and Hong Kong.
I would just observe that I’ve seen various articles saying that various deaths caused by, or contributed to by, covid-19, have not been counted.
(People who die in nursing homes, etc.)
I do not have any reason to think that undercount has suddenly gotten more or less accurate, but it does add some noise to the 3DDRR plot.
As for NYC, one wonders if at some level, things like personal density (how many people are sharing small quarters, how many people are riding crowded transports to work, etc) and levels of illness (asthma, hypertension, etc.) overwhelm any public health measure short of a vaccine.
I suspect many parts of the developing world will offer observational experiments in this regard, sadly.
NEW YORK CITY (WABC) — More than 600 uniformed NYPD officers who had previously tested positive for coronavirus have recovered and returned to work, Commissioner Dermot Shea said Friday.
And for the first time since the crisis began, more officers have returned to work than are out sick.
“The very good news today, trying to pull any good news we can see, for the first day in 27 days, 27 straight days of up people sick, until today,” he said. “The best email I got this morning that I woke up to, we had more people coming back to work than going out sick. There is light at the end of the tunnel.”
Shea said about 20% of the department remains out sick and then video conferenced with two police officers — Officer Christian Calvanga from the 75th Precinct and Officer Kenny DuBois from the 90th Precinct, both in Brooklyn — who tested positive for COVID-19 and are now back on the job.
—-
About 20% reported sick, the total force is about 38,000. . I am thinking that cops are a representative sample of NYC.
Detective Cedric Dixon was the first officer to succumb to the disease in late March. On Thursday, Police Commissioner Dermot Shea announced the death of a second cop, Officer Eric Murray.
Sixteen civilian members of the NYPD have also died from the virus, according to police officials.
As of Friday, 2,767 members of the NYPD had contracted coronavirus — with 2,314 of those unformed cops, a police spokesman said.
—–
So far that is a very low death rate and a very high spread rate.
Suppose that the optimistic scenario is correct, and it turns out to have been just an unusually bad flu season, or something like that. There will then be a debate as to whether the original projections were grossly inflated or draconian measures saved a million lives. What facts would tend to confirm and disconfirm each of these views?
For obvious reasons, it would be desirable to decide this before we know what the facts turn out to be.
Antibody test sampling will settle this argument for honest people. For dishonest people, the evidence simply won’t matter.
I wonder if there is a threshold, or critical-mass, effect at work in NYC. Once the epidemic reached a certain point it was impossible to contain; the same might have happened in Italy. It suggests to Trump/Fauci critics on the right that the social distancing was warranted.
It depends what you mean by “social distancing”: Sweden is doing social distancing but they are not locking up everyone indefinitely, not closing down schools, bars and restaurants. But they’ve cancelled all sport and political events and all public gatherings larger than 50 people. Does that count as “social distancing” in your book?
Japan does even less than that and has so low a number of infected and dead that it’s the rounding error in other parts of the world. Yet, I am certain that even they are doing some social distancing. Similar applies to Taiwan and Hong Kong.
I would just observe that I’ve seen various articles saying that various deaths caused by, or contributed to by, covid-19, have not been counted.
(People who die in nursing homes, etc.)
I do not have any reason to think that undercount has suddenly gotten more or less accurate, but it does add some noise to the 3DDRR plot.
As for NYC, one wonders if at some level, things like personal density (how many people are sharing small quarters, how many people are riding crowded transports to work, etc) and levels of illness (asthma, hypertension, etc.) overwhelm any public health measure short of a vaccine.
I suspect many parts of the developing world will offer observational experiments in this regard, sadly.
https://abc7ny.com/coronavirus-nyc-update-corona-virus-cases/6092666/
NEW YORK CITY (WABC) — More than 600 uniformed NYPD officers who had previously tested positive for coronavirus have recovered and returned to work, Commissioner Dermot Shea said Friday.
And for the first time since the crisis began, more officers have returned to work than are out sick.
“The very good news today, trying to pull any good news we can see, for the first day in 27 days, 27 straight days of up people sick, until today,” he said. “The best email I got this morning that I woke up to, we had more people coming back to work than going out sick. There is light at the end of the tunnel.”
Shea said about 20% of the department remains out sick and then video conferenced with two police officers — Officer Christian Calvanga from the 75th Precinct and Officer Kenny DuBois from the 90th Precinct, both in Brooklyn — who tested positive for COVID-19 and are now back on the job.
—-
About 20% reported sick, the total force is about 38,000. . I am thinking that cops are a representative sample of NYC.
https://nypost.com/2020/04/10/second-nypd-detective-dies-from-coronavirus/
Detective Cedric Dixon was the first officer to succumb to the disease in late March. On Thursday, Police Commissioner Dermot Shea announced the death of a second cop, Officer Eric Murray.
Sixteen civilian members of the NYPD have also died from the virus, according to police officials.
As of Friday, 2,767 members of the NYPD had contracted coronavirus — with 2,314 of those unformed cops, a police spokesman said.
—–
So far that is a very low death rate and a very high spread rate.
Suppose that the optimistic scenario is correct, and it turns out to have been just an unusually bad flu season, or something like that. There will then be a debate as to whether the original projections were grossly inflated or draconian measures saved a million lives. What facts would tend to confirm and disconfirm each of these views?
For obvious reasons, it would be desirable to decide this before we know what the facts turn out to be.
Antibody test sampling will settle this argument for honest people. For dishonest people, the evidence simply won’t matter.