Two approaches to dealing with the combined public health crisis and economic crisis.
(1) Have people privately reduce mingling with one another PLUS have government order people to take steps to reduce mingling. Then try to deal with the economic consequences by increasing government spending by $2 trillion or more, with a share of that to be financed by money creation assuming the government is not going to be able to borrow that much on such short notice.
(2) Instruct people on how to tie a scarf over the nose and mouth.* Meanwhile, ramp up mask production, so that as soon as possible masks are widely available. Point out to everyone that wearing something over their nose and mouth is a public duty. It’s not (just) protecting yourself from infection, it protects other people from being infected unknowingly by you. If necessary, legislate fines and enforce them when people go out in public without wearing something over nose and mouth.
With either (1) or (2), you still need to isolate people who are coughing and who are known to have the virus. With either (1) or (2), you need to be supportive of health care workers, search for cures, search for a vaccine, and so on.
With either (1) or (2), there is an imposition on liberty. With (1), you tell people where they are allowed to go and tell businesses they have to shut down. With (2), you tell people that they can’t leave their noses and mouths naked.
With either (1) or (2), there will continue to be new cases of the virus. The goal is to reduce the spread of the virus down to a level that will keep hospital emergency rooms from getting overwhelmed. Both (1) and (2) leave gaps. For example, under (1) there will be some mingling, either by people breaking the rules or people who are exceptions to the rules. But even though there are gaps, it seems plausible that either approach could greatly reduce the spread rate.
With (1), a lot of economic activity is curtailed. With (2), some people will still be leery of getting onto planes or going on cruises. Eating in restaurants will be awkward, and many people will put off doing so. But more businesses will feel ok about opening their offices. And more individuals will feel ok about getting haircuts, shopping in stores, and going to sporting events–provided that they see everyone around them wearing masks (which should turn out to be the case, if social pressure and law enforcement are effective).
With (1), government finance will be shaky. I don’t know why more people aren’t worried about this. If there is no down side to increasing spending by 10 percent of GDP, why doesn’t the government do so all the time? I think that the answer is that eventually you turn into Zimbabwe, with hyperinflation. Hyperinflation is like a virus, in that by the time you can see it, it’s too late to stop it. Hyperinflation destroys the social fabric. It’s something to fear.
Finally, I wonder how charitable I should be about the health advisers, economic pundits, and political leaders who are committed to (1). Those poobahs will be more important if we implement (1) instead of (2). I hope that is not what tips the decision.
Thanks to Russ Roberts for a helpful conversation.
UPDATE: *We would also need to instruct people on sanitary use of a scarf. Best not to reverse it, not to touch it while wearing it, and also to wash it or heat treat it frequently. I would like to thank Dallas Weaver for pointing this out. He has some advice on the use of masks. In an email, he writes “I assume you have noticed that all the countries that are under control use masks.”